Keir Starmer’s welfare reforms hang by a thread the day before a vote that could define his premiership. The prime minister was almost certainly heading for his first Commons defeat in government before a last-minute deal reached last week between government officials and leading rebels.
However, the result remains uncertain, with a series of Labour MPs warning on Monday that they could not back the bill in its current form. Many are angry about the fact that the controversial four-point system to qualify for personal independence payments (Pips) will take effect in November 2026, no matter the outcome of a government review into the system.
With ministers still unsure of winning the vote, Labour whips were calling colleagues throughout Monday to gauge support levels. One of the problems for party managers is that opposition is coming from a large and disparate group without one clear leader.
But here are six of the Labour figures – inside and outside parliament – whose voices are being listened to particularly closely.
The welfare rebels
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Meg Hillier
MP for Hackney South and Shoreditch
As head of the cross-party Treasury select committee, Hillier’s parliamentary role is more usually that of impartial inquisitor rather than rabble-rousing rebel. So, her name as the first signatory on last week’s wrecking amendment gave the rebellion the momentum it needed to force the government into concessions.
It was unsurprising, therefore, that Hillier was one of the small group of MPs who thrashed out a compromise deal last week. Her support for that deal was vital in persuading the government they had done enough to sway other moderates.
But her questions in the House of Commons on Monday over the details of the concessions reflected an unease about the details which is shared by many of her colleagues.
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Debbie Abrahams
MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth
Along with Hillier, Abrahams, the chair of the work and pensions select committee, helped negotiate the compromise package struck last week. But also like Hillier, her comments in the Commons on Monday suggested she was still unconvinced that they go far enough.
“The [Pip] review should determine both the new process, the new points and the new descriptors,” she said. “We shouldn’t pre-determine it at four points at the moment.”
Abrahams is understood to be more hardline in her opposition to the compromise she helped agree than Hillier, and whips will be working hard to talk her round.
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Louise Haigh
Having been sacked from the cabinet last November, Haigh has found a new lease of life as unofficial leader of the soft left on the Labour backbenches. Although she has not played the most visible role of the rebels, she has been acting as their unofficial whip, counting MPs’ votes and helping to decide the wording of the wrecking amendment.
Haigh was thought to have been mollified by the government’s concessions last week, but on Monday her allies were criticising the government for the way they had handled the fallout.
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Marie Tidball
MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge
For the last few weeks, Tidball has remained largely silent on the welfare bill, despite being one of parliament’s only visibly physically disabled MPs. Although she had not put her name to the rebel amendment, she played an important role trying to persuade the Treasury to make concessions, culminating in what is reported to have been an angry conversation between her and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Tidball broke her silence on Sunday, detailing her objections to the bill in a piece for the Guardian. She made an impassioned contribution to Monday’s debate in which she argued: “Having no public consultation of these plans excludes the voice of disabled people.”
However, she has not yet said which way she intends to vote and her final decision will be keenly watched by Labour whips.
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Rachael Maskell
A persistent thorn in Starmer’s side, Maskell has emerged as a softly spoken champion of the left of the party. From winter fuel payments, to overseas aid cuts, to compensation for Waspi women, Maskell has often been one of the government’s most eloquent left-wing opponents.
Party managers expect the MP for York Central to line up against them on Tuesday. If they persuade her not to, they could peel off a large chunk of the remaining rebels.
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Andy Burnham
Mayor of Greater Manchester
When Keir Starmer is in trouble, Andy Burnham has a knack of making himself prominent. The Greater Manchester mayor does not have a vote in Tuesday’s debate, but his intervention over the weekend, telling MPs not to vote for a “50% U-turn”, will have been noticed in Downing Street and on the soft left of the party.
Burnham’s position was echoed on Monday by his London counterpart, Sadiq Khan, pitting the country’s two most powerful Labour politicians outside Westminster against the prime minister.